ʻO ka māwae ma ke alanui no ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu

Ke maʻa nei mākou i nā makahiki hoʻopaʻa moʻolelo no ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu, a ʻo 2024 ka mea ʻokoʻa. Ua hoʻolālā ka mea hana Tesla i 31.4 GWh, piʻi i 213% mai 2023, a ua hoʻonui ʻia ka mea hoʻolako mākeke ʻo Bloomberg New Energy Finance i kāna wānana ʻelua, e hoʻopau ana i ka makahiki e wānana ana ma kahi o 2.4 TWh o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu pākahi ma 2030. He mea haʻahaʻa paha kēlā.

ʻO nā puka puka manaʻo maikaʻi a me ka ulu ʻana o ka exponential he mea paʻakikī ke wānana. ʻAʻole i hoʻonohonoho maikaʻi ʻia nā kānaka e hana i nā exponents. I ka makahiki 2019, ua hoʻolako ʻia ka pumped hydro storage (PHS) i ka 90% o ka mana mālama mālama ikehu honua (ana ʻia i nā gigawatts), akā ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia nā pākaukau e lanakila ma 2025 a me kona hiki ke mālama i ka ikehu pili, i nā hola gigawatt, e 2030.

He ʻenehana nā ʻenehana, ʻaʻole he wahie, a hahai i ka "helu aʻo" hōʻemi kumu kūʻai e like me nā semiconductor o nā lako lā ma mua o nā waiwai ikehu kuʻuna. Ua hāʻule nā ​​kumukūʻai o ke kelepona ma kahi o 29% no kēlā me kēia pālua o ka nui o ka mākeke i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, e like me nā mea noiʻi ma ka RMI think tank.

He hanauna hou o ka "3xx Ah" lithium ferro-phosphate (LFP) pūnaewele - 305Ah, 306Ah, 314Ah, 320Ah - ua komo i ka hana, e hāʻawi ana i ka ikehu kiʻekiʻe a me nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa ma mua o nā pūnaewele 280Ah. Pono lākou i ka hoʻonohonoho hou ʻana o ka laina hana ma muli o kahi ʻano like prismatic form factor.

ʻOi aku ka lohi-ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia ua hoʻoulu ʻia ka nui o ka lako, ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana i nā kumukūʻai kumu kumu pākaukau a me ka hoʻokūkū kūʻai ikaika. I ka makahiki 2024, ua hāʻule ke kumu kūʻai o ka ʻōnaehana mālama ikehu (ESS) he 40% a i $165/kWh, ʻo ka emi loa o ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana. ʻOi aku ka haʻahaʻa o nā kumukūʻai Kina, ʻoiai ʻo 16 GWh PowerChina tender i ʻike i nā kumukūʻai ESS$66.3/kWh i Kekemapa 2024.

Leapfrogging lōʻihi

ʻO ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai cell disproportionately pōmaikaʻi nā ʻōnaehana mālama ikehu lōʻihi. ʻO kēia mau papahana, me nā ʻāpana kumu kūʻai kelepona kiʻekiʻe, e hiki koke mai ana ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia, no laila, ʻoi aku ka "leapfrogging" o nā pūnaewele me ka mālama ʻana i ka lōʻihi lōʻihi "hoʻokahi a i ʻelua mau pahu pahu no ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ke alapine a me ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka ukana ma United States a me Australia.

No ka laʻana, ʻo Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Project, i kēia manawa ke hoʻokipa nei i ka "microgrid nui loa o ka honua" - he 400 MW solar a me 225 MW/1.3 GWh pūnaewele mālama ikehu pākaukau (BESS).

Ua loaʻa iā Saudi Arabia he 33.5 GWh o nā pākahi i ka hana, i ke kūkulu ʻia ʻana, a i ʻole i hoʻopaʻa ʻia - me ka lōʻihi o ka mālama ʻana i ʻehā a ʻelima mau hola - a he 34 GWh hou i hoʻolālā ʻia ma lalo o kāna hoʻolālā ikehu Vision 2030. Hiki iā ia ke hoʻonoho iā Saudi Arabia ma waena o nā mākeke mālama ikehu ʻelima ma ke ao holoʻokoʻa e 2026. Hiki ke ʻano like ʻole ma waena o ka sunbelt Middle East a me North Africa (MENA), mai Morocco a hiki i United Arab Emirates, e hoʻonoho ana i ka ʻāina ma ke ʻano he mea kūʻai aku i ka ikehu maʻemaʻe a ma lalo o ka radar o nā wānana, mahalo i ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻomohala ʻana.

Kūloko a me ka honua

ʻOiai ke ʻano o ka hoʻohiki ʻana, ua hoʻomau ʻia nā kaulahao lako pākaukau e Kina. ʻO ka hoʻāʻo ʻana e hoʻopaʻa i nā kaulahao hoʻolako kūloko ua paʻakikī nui e hoʻokūkū. ʻO ka hāʻule ʻana o Britishvolt ma United Kingdom a me ka waiho ʻana i ka panakalupa o Northvolt i ka European Union e lilo i mau hiʻohiʻona maʻalahi. ʻAʻole ia i hoʻōki i ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i nā kaulahao lako i waena o kahi honua palekana.

Ua hoʻoikaika ka US Inflation Reduction Act i ka hana BESS kūloko a me nā dute lawe mai ma nā huahana Kina e manaʻo e hana i nā hana a hōʻemi i ka hilinaʻi ʻana i nā mea lawe mai. ʻO kēlā mau ana ka mea e pilikia ai ka lawe lohi ʻana i ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu a me nā EV, akā naʻe, ma muli o ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe.

Ua hoʻopaʻi ʻo Kina i ka mootinghe papahanae pāpā i ka lawe ʻana aku i nā lako hana cathode a me nā anode a me ka ʻenehana lithium extraction a me ka hoʻomaʻemaʻe. ʻOiai inā ʻo ka ESS a me ka hana ʻana o ke kelepona pākaukau, e hoʻomau mau ʻia nā mea maka ma Kina, e neʻe ana i ka bottleneck i uka.

I ka makahiki 2025, hiki ke hoʻokaʻawale ka mākeke mālama ikehu honua i ʻelua. ʻO nā mākeke palekana e like me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, India, a me MENA e hoʻokumu i nā kaulahao hoʻolako kūloko no ka hana ʻana i ka hana aʻo ka Global South e kālele ana i ka hoʻokomo ʻole ʻana i ka uku, e hoʻokau i ka hiki a me ka ulu waiwai.

Hoʻokani kēlā ikaika i nā hoʻopaʻapaʻa mōʻaukala honua e like me nā Kānāwai Corn o nā makahiki 1800. Ke kū nei ka ʻāpana mālama ikehu i nā ʻano hoʻopaʻapaʻa like ma waena o nā mea hou i alakaʻi ʻia i ke kālepa a me nā pilikia o ka like ʻole o ka hoʻokele waiwai a me ka neʻe ʻana o ka hana.

Ala i mua

ʻO ka makahiki 2025, no laila, e hōʻailona i kahi helu inflection hou no ka ʻoihana mālama ikehu. I ka holomua ʻana o ka ʻenehana a me ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai e hoʻolalelale i ka hoʻohana ʻana a lawe i mua i ka mālama ʻana i ka lōʻihi o ka lōʻihi, a me ka hiki ʻana o kahi 100%-renewables grid, ua mākaukau nā mākeke e hoʻololi hou i kā lākou ʻāina ikehu. ʻO ka lāhui honua no ka mana hoʻolako kaulahao e hōʻike ana i ke ʻano o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu ʻaʻole ia he ʻenehana kākoʻo wale nō, akā he pou waena o ka hoʻololi ikehu.

ʻO ka mahele o nā kaulahao hoʻolako honua, i hoʻoulu ʻia e nā kulekele palekana, hoʻāla i nā nīnau koʻikoʻi e pili ana i ke kaulike o ka ikehu a me ka hana hou. E hoʻolalelale paha ka hoʻoikaika ʻana no ka hana ʻoihana kūloko a i ʻole e hoʻolōʻihi i ka holomua ma nā mākeke e hilinaʻi ana i nā hoʻokomo kūpono a hoʻololi wale i ka "choke point" i uka?

I ka hoʻokele ʻana i kēia mau dynamics, hiki i ka ʻāpana mālama mālama ikehu ke hana i ʻoi aku ma mua o nā ʻoihana mana - hiki iā ia ke hoʻonohonoho i kahi kumu no ka hiki ʻana i nā ʻoihana ke kaulike i ka hoʻokūkū, ka launa pū ʻana, a me ka hoʻomau i ke alo o nā pilikia honua. ʻO nā hoʻoholo i hana ʻia i kēia lā e ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o 2025, ʻaʻole i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka ikehu wale nō, akā ʻo ke ala ākea socioeconomic o nā makahiki e hiki mai ana.