Inzira yo kubika ingufu

Tumaze kumenyera imyaka myinshi yo kubika ingufu, kandi 2024 na yo ntiyabaye nk'uko byari bimeze. Uruganda rwa Tesla rwatanze 31.4 GWh, byiyongereyeho 213% ugereranije n'umwaka wa 2023, kandi ikigo gishinzwe iperereza ku isoko Bloomberg New Energy Finance cyazamuye iteganyagihe ryacyo kabiri, kirangiza umwaka kivuga ko hafi 2.4 TWh by'ububiko bw'ingufu za batiri mu 2030. Ibyo bishobora kuba ari ibintu bitoroshye.

Uburyo bwiza bwo gutanga ibitekerezo hamwe n'ubwiyongere bw'ingufu biragoye kumenya. Abantu ntibaramenyera neza gutunganya ibikoresho bitanga ingufu. Mu 2019, ububiko bw'amazi bukoresha pompe (PHS) bwatanze 90% by'ingufu zikoreshwa mu kubika ingufu ku isi (zipimirwa muri gigawati), ariko bateri ziteganijwe kurenga izo mu 2025 n'ubushobozi bwazo bwo kubika ingufu, mu masaha ya gigawati, bitarenze mu 2030.

Amabatiri ni ikoranabuhanga, si lisansi, kandi akurikiza "igipimo cyo kwiga" cyo kugabanya ibiciro nk'icy'ibikoresho bya semiconductor by'izuba kuruta icy'ibikoresho bisanzwe by'ingufu. Ikiguzi cy'uturemangingo twa batiri cyagabanutseho hafi 29% kuri buri gukuba kabiri kw'ingano y'isoko mu myaka yashize, nk'uko abashakashatsi bo mu kigo cy'ubushakashatsi cya RMI babivuga.

Itsinda rishya ry’uturemangingo twa “3xx Ah” twa lithium ferro-phosphate (LFP) – 305Ah, 306Ah, 314Ah, 320Ah – ryinjiye mu musaruro, ritanga ingufu nyinshi n’ikiguzi gito cy’uturemangingo ugereranyije n’uturemangingo twa 280Ah. Byari bikenewe ko umurongo w’umusaruro uhinduka muke bitewe n’imiterere isa na yo ya prismatic.

Gukenera ibinyabiziga bikoresha amashanyarazi buhoro kurusha uko byari byitezwe byateje igabanuka ry’ibiciro by’ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi bya batiri, binatuma habaho ipiganwa rikomeye ry’ibiciro. Mu 2024, ibiciro by’uburyo bwo kubika ingufu (ESS) byagabanutseho 40% bigera ku madolari 165/kWh, igabanuka rikomeye cyane mu mateka y’u Bushinwa. Ibiciro by’ibinyabiziga byo mu Bushinwa biri hasi cyane, kuko isoko rya 16 GWh PowerChina ryagaragaje ibiciro bya ESS bingana.$66.3/kWh mu Ukuboza 2024.

Gusimbuka igihe kirekire

Ibiciro bya selile bigabanuka bifasha cyane sisitemu zo kubika ingufu igihe kirekire. Iyi mishinga, ifite ibice byinshi by’ibiciro bya selile, irimo gukora vuba kurusha uko byari byitezwe, bityo ahantu habikwa ububiko igihe kirekire "harimo gusimbuka" bateri z'isaha imwe kugeza kuri ebyiri kugira ngo hagenzurwe ingano y'amashanyarazi no guhindura umutwaro muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Ositaraliya.

Urugero, umushinga wa Arabiya Sawudite wo ku Nyanja Itukura ubu ufite "urusobe rw'amashanyarazi runini ku isi" - sisitemu yo kubika ingufu z'izuba ya MW 400 na batiri ya MW 225/1.3 GWh (BESS).

Arabiya Sawudite ifite bateri za GWh 33.5 zikora, ziri kubakwa, cyangwa zitangwa – zose zifite igihe cyo kubika amasaha ane kugeza kuri atanu – hamwe n’izindi GWh 34 ziteganijwe muri gahunda yayo y’ingufu ya Vision 2030. Ibyo bishobora gushyira Arabiya Sawudite mu masoko atanu ya mbere yo kubika ingufu ku isi mu 2026. Imiterere nk’iyi ishobora kuba mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati na Afurika y’Amajyaruguru (MENA), kuva muri Maroc kugeza muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu, bigatuma ako karere gashora ingufu zisukuye kandi byose bikaba biri munsi y’amakuru y’abateganya ibizamini, bitewe n’umuvuduko w’iterambere.

Mu gihugu no ku isi hose

Nubwo hari ibintu byiza bishimishije, imiyoboro y’amashanyarazi iracyari ku isonga ry’Ubushinwa. Kugerageza gushyigikira imiyoboro y’amashanyarazi yo mu karere byagoranye cyane guhangana. Gusenyuka kwa Britishvolt mu Bwongereza no kubura uburenganzira bwo guhomba kwa Northvolt mu Muryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi ni ingero zigaragara. Ibyo ntibyahagaritse ibikorwa byo gutanga serivisi z’amashanyarazi mu isi irimo abantu benshi baharanira kurengera.

Itegeko ryo kugabanya ibiciro by’ibiciro muri Amerika ryashishikarizaga inganda n’imisoro yo gutumiza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga bya BESS mu gihugu hagamijwe guhanga imirimo no kugabanya kwishingikiriza ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga. Izo ngamba zishobora gutuma uburyo bwo kubika ingufu n’imodoka zitwara imizigo bitinda, ariko, bitewe n’ibiciro biri hejuru by’igihe gito.

Ubushinwa bwihoreye buvuga ko bugiye kurengagahundaKubuza kohereza hanze ibikoresho byo gukora cathode na anode ndetse n'ikoranabuhanga ryo gukuramo no gutunganya litiyumu. Nubwo ESS na bateri zakorwa mu gace runaka, ibikoresho fatizo bizakomeza kuba byinshi mu Bushinwa, bigatuma ikibazo kizamuka.

Mu 2025, isoko ry’ingufu ku isi rishobora kugabanywamo kabiri. Amasoko aharanira inyungu nka Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Ubuhinde, na MENA azashyira imbere imiyoboro y’ibikoresho byo mu gace runaka mu guhanga imirimo mu gihe Isi y’Amajyepfo izibanda ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga bidafite imisoro, kugira ngo birusheho kugabanuka no kwiyongera k’ubukungu.

Iyo mihindagurikire isubiramo impaka z’amateka ku isi nk’amategeko agenga ibigori yo mu myaka ya 1800. Urwego rw’ingufu ruhura n’ibibazo nk’ibyo hagati y’udushya dushingiye ku bucuruzi n’ibyago by’ubusumbane mu bukungu no kwimura imirimo.

Inzira yo kujya imbere

Bityo, umwaka wa 2025 uzaba ikindi gihe cyo kwiyongera kw'inganda zibika ingufu. Uko iterambere ry'ikoranabuhanga n'igabanuka ry'ibiciro byihutisha ikoreshwa no guteza imbere ububiko bw'ingufu bumara igihe kirekire, ndetse no kuba hashoboka ko habaho ikoranabuhanga rishobora kongera gukoreshwa 100%, amasoko agenda yitegura kuvugurura imiterere y'ingufu zayo. Isiganwa ku isi ry'ubwiganze bw'uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa rigaragaza uburyo ububiko bw'ingufu butakiri ikoranabuhanga rishyigikira gusa, ahubwo ari inkingi y'ingenzi y'impinduka mu ngufu.

Igabanywa ry'imiyoboro y'ibikoresho ku isi, riterwa inkunga na politiki zo kurengera, riteza ibibazo bikomeye ku bijyanye n'uburinganire mu bijyanye n'ingufu n'udushya. Ese imbaraga zo gukora inganda zo mu gace runaka zizatera imbaraga zo guhangana n'ingaruka mbi cyangwa bizadindiza iterambere ry'amasoko yishingikiriza ku bitumizwa mu mahanga bihendutse, maze bigahindura "aho bihagarara" bigatera imbere?

Mu guhangana n’iyi mihindagurikire, urwego rw’ingufu rufite ubushobozi bwo gukora ibirenze ubukungu bw’ingufu - rushobora gushyiraho urugero rw’uburyo inganda zishobora kuringaniza amarushanwa, ubufatanye, no gukomeza mu gihe habayeho ibibazo ku isi. Ibyemezo bifatwa uyu munsi bizagaruka nyuma ya 2025, bitagize uruhare mu mpinduka mu ngufu gusa, ahubwo binashyire mu bikorwa inzira yagutse y’ubukungu n’imibereho myiza y’abaturage mu myaka iri imbere.