Forogo mumugwagwa wekuchengetedza simba

Isu tave kujaira kurekodha-kutyora makore ekuchengetedza simba, uye 2024 zvakangodaro. Mugadziri Tesla akatumira 31.4 GWh, kumusoro 213% kubva 2023, uye mutengesi wehungwaru hwemusika Bloomberg New Energy Finance yakasimudza fungidziro yayo kaviri, ichipedza gore ichifanotaura dzinenge 2.4 TWh yebhatiri rekuchengetedza simba panosvika 2030. Izvozvo zvingangove zvisingatarisirwi.

Positive mhinduro loops uye exponential kukura zvinozivikanwa zvakaoma kufanotaura. Vanhu havana kugadzirwa zvakanaka kuti vagadzirise maexponents. Muna 2019, pumped hydro storage (PHS) yakapa 90% yesimba rekuchengetedza simba repasi rose (yakayerwa mugigawatts), asi mabhatiri akaiswa kuti apfuure izvo muna 2025 uye simba rayo rekuchengetedza simba, mumaawa egigawatt, panosvika 2030.

Mabhatiri tekinoroji, kwete mafuta, uye anotevera kudzikiswa kwemutengo "chiyero chekudzidza" zvakanyanya senge semiconductors yemidziyo yezuva pane iyo yechinyakare simba assets. Mari yebhatiri cell yadonha ingangoita 29% pakupetwa kwese kwehukuru hwemusika mumakumi emakore achangopfuura, sekureva kwevaongorori veRMI think tank.

Chizvarwa chitsva che "3xx Ah" lithium ferro-phosphate (LFP) masero - 305Ah, 306Ah, 314Ah, 320Ah - yakapinda mukugadzirwa, ichipa simba rakakwirira uye yakaderera mari yeyuniti kupfuura 280Ah masero. Ivo vaida mashoma ekugadzira mutsara wekugadzirisa zvakare nekuda kweiyo yakafanana prismatic fomu chinhu.

Inononoka-kupfuura-inotarisirwa yemotokari yemagetsi (EV) kudiwa kwakonzera kuwandisa, kuwedzera kuderera kwemitengo yezvinhu zvebhatiri uye kumutsa makwikwi emitengo. Muna 2024, avhareji yesimba rekuchengetedza sisitimu (ESS) mitengo yakadonha 40% kusvika $165/kWh, kuderera kwakanyanya parekodhi. Mari dzeChinese dzakadzikira zvakanyanya, sezvo 16 GWh PowerChina nyoro yakaona mitengo yeESS ichikwira$66.3/kWh muna Zvita 2024.

Kusvetuka kwenguva refu

Kudonha kwesero kunodhura zvisingaenzaniswi kunobatsira kwenguva yakareba-nguva yekuchengetedza simba masisitimu. Aya mapurojekiti, ane akakwira-cell-mutengo wezvikamu, ari kuita nekukurumidza zvakanyanya kupfuura zvaitarisirwa, saka mawebhusaiti ane chengetedzo yenguva refu ari "kusvetuka-svetuka" mabhatiri eawa imwe kusvika kumaviri ekugadzirisa mafambisirwo egridhi uye kusimuka kwekutakura muUnited States neAustralia.

MuSaudi Arabia's Red Sea Project, semuenzaniso, ikozvino ine "yakakura pasi rose microgrid" - 400 MW solar uye 225 MW / 1.3 GWh bhatiri rekuchengetedza simba system (BESS).

Saudi Arabia ine 33.5 GWh yemabhatiri ari kushanda, ari kuvakwa, kana kupihwa tender - ese aine maawa mana kusvika mashanu ekuchengetedza - uye imwe 34 GWh yakarongwa pasi peChiratidzo 2030 simba resimba. Izvi zvinogona kuisa Saudi Arabia pakati pemisika mishanu yepamusoro yekuchengetedza simba pasi rose panosvika 2026. Masimba akafanana angangoitika kuMiddle East neNorth Africa (MENA) sunbelt, kubva kuMorocco kusvika kuUnited Arab Emirates, ichiisa dunhu semutengesi wemagetsi akachena uye zvese zvakanyanya pasi pe radar yevanofanotaura, nekuda kwekumhanya kwebudiriro.

Local uye pasi rose

Pasinei nemaitiro anovimbisa, mabhatiri ekupa cheni anoramba achitongwa neChina. Kuedza kusimudza cheni dzekugovera dzematunhu kwakanetsa kukwikwidza. Kupunzika kweBritishvolt kuUnited Kingdom uye kubhuroka kuchengetedzwa kweNorthvolt muEuropean Union inoshanda semuenzaniso wakajeka. Izvo hazvina kumisa kuedza kwebhatiri rekushandisa pakati penyika inodzivirira.

Mutemo weUS Inflation Reduction Act unokurudzira kugadzirwa kweBESS yemuno uye kupinza mutero pazvigadzirwa zveChinese chinangwa chekugadzira mabasa uye kuderedza kuvimba nekutenga kunze kwenyika. Iwo matanho ane njodzi inononoka kutorwa kwegridi-chiyero chekuchengetedza simba uye maEVs, zvisinei, nekuda kwemitengo yakakwira iri pedyo-yenguva.

China yakadzorera nekupopotachirongwakurambidza kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwecathode uye anode kugadzira michina pamwe neiyo lithium yekubvisa uye yekunatsa tekinoroji. Kunyangwe kana ESS uye bhatiri kugadzirwa kwesero kuri kwenzvimbo, zvigadzirwa zvicharamba zvakamisikidzwa muChina, zvichifambisa bhodhoro kumusoro.

Muna 2025, musika wepasi rose wekuchengetedza simba unogona kupatsanurwa nepakati. Misika yekudzivirira yakaita seUnited States, India, neMENA ichaisa pamberi pecheni dzekugovera kugadzirwa kwemabasa nepo Global South ichitarisa nezvekutengesa kunze kwemitero, kutyaira kugona uye kukura kwehupfumi.

Izvo zvine simba zvinoratidzira nhaurirano dzekudyidzana kwepasirese dzakaita seMitemo yeCorn yemakore ekuma1800s. Bato rekuchengetedza simba rinotarisana nekukakavadzana kwakafanana pakati pezvitsva zvinofambiswa nekutengeserana uye njodzi dzekusaenzana kwehupfumi uye kubviswa kwemabasa.

Nzira yekuenda mberi

Gore ra2025, saka, richamaka imwe inflection point yeindasitiri yekuchengetedza simba. Sezvo kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji uye kudonha kwemitengo kunomhanyisa kugamuchirwa uye kuunza kumberi-kwenguva yekuchengetedza, pamwe nekugoneka kwe100%-inovandudzwa grid, misika iri kuramba yakagadzirira kutsanangura patsva masimba ayo. Mujaho wepasi rose wehutongi hwezvekugovera unosimbisa kuti kuchengetedza kwesimba hakusisiri tekinoroji inotsigira, asi mbiru yepakati pekuchinja kwesimba.

Kupatsanurwa kwemaketani epasirese ekupa, kunokurudzirwa nemitemo yekudzivirira, kunomutsa mibvunzo ine simba pamusoro pekuenzana kwesimba uye hunyanzvi. Ko iyo yekusundidzira yekugadzirwa kwenzvimbo ichaita kusimba here kana kuti ichanonoka kufambira mberi mumisika inoenderana nekutengwa kunze kwenyika uye kungochinja "choki point" kumusoro kumusoro?

Mukufambisa masimba aya, chikamu chekuchengetedza simba chine mukana wekuita zvinopfuura hupfumi hwemagetsi - chinogona kuisa muenzaniso wekuti maindasitiri anogona kuenzanisa sei makwikwi, kushandira pamwe, uye kusimba mukutarisana nematambudziko epasi rose. Sarudzo dzakaitwa nhasi dzichaita mukurumbira kupfuura 2025, dzichiumba kwete chete shanduko yesimba, asi yakafararira yemagariro nehupfumi mumakumi emakore ari kuuya.