Ifolokhwe endleleni yokugcina amandla

Sele siqhelana neminyaka egqithileyo yokugcina amandla, kwaye u-2024 wayenjalo. Umenzi weTesla usebenzise i-31.4 GWh, enyuke nge-213% ukusuka ku-2023, kwaye umboneleli wezobukrelekrele bemarike iBloomberg New Energy Finance uphakamise uqikelelo lwakhe kabini, ephelisa unyaka eqikelela phantse i-2.4 TWh yokugcina amandla ebhetri ngo-2030. Oko kusenokwenzeka ukuba akunamsebenzi.

Iziganeko zempendulo ezilungileyo kunye nokukhula okubonakalayo kunzima ukuziqikelela. Abantu abakakulungeli kakuhle ukucubungula ii-exponents. Ngo-2019, i-pumped hydro storage (PHS) inike i-90% yamandla okugcina amandla kwihlabathi liphela (alinganiswa ngee-gigawatts), kodwa iibhetri zilindeleke ukuba zidlule oko ngo-2025 kunye namandla okugcina amandla anxulumene nawo, kwiiyure ze-gigawatt, ngo-2030.

Iibhetri zibuchwepheshe, aziyopetroli, kwaye zilandela “izinga lokufunda” lokunciphisa amaxabiso elifana kakhulu nelezixhobo zelanga kunezixhobo zamandla zemveli. Iindleko zeeseli zebhetri zehle malunga nama-29% ngokuphindaphindwa kabini kobukhulu bemarike kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngokutsho kwabaphandi kwi-RMI think tank.

Isizukulwana esitsha seeseli ze-“3xx Ah” lithium ferro-phosphate (LFP) – 305Ah, 306Ah, 314Ah, 320Ah – singene kwimveliso, sinikezela ngobuninzi bamandla aphezulu kunye neendleko eziphantsi zeeyunithi kuneeseli ze-280Ah. Babefuna ukulungiswa okuncinci komgca wemveliso ngenxa yesimo esifanayo se-prismatic.

Imfuno yezithuthi zombane ezicothayo kunokuba bekulindelwe ibangele ukunikezelwa okugqithisileyo, nto leyo ebangela ukuba amaxabiso eebhetri anciphe ngakumbi kwaye ibangele ukhuphiswano olukhulu lwamaxabiso. Ngo-2024, amaxabiso aphakathi enkqubo yokugcina amandla (ESS) ehle ngama-40% ukuya kwi-$165/kWh, ukwehla okukhulu kwirekhodi. Iindleko zaseTshayina ziphantsi kakhulu, njengoko ithenda ye-16 GWh PowerChina ibone amaxabiso e-ESS efikelela kumyinge.$66.3/kWh ngoDisemba 2024.

Ukutsiba-tsiba ixesha elide

Iindleko zeeseli eziwayo zinceda kakhulu kwiinkqubo zokugcina amandla ezihlala ixesha elide. Ezi projekthi, ezineenxalenye eziphezulu zeendleko zeeseli, zisebenza ngokukhawuleza kunokuba bekulindelwe, ngoko ke iindawo ezineendawo zokugcina ixesha elide "zitshintsha ngokukhawuleza" iibhetri zeyure enye ukuya kwezimbini zokulawula igridi kunye nokutshintsha komthwalo eMelika naseOstreliya.

Umzekelo, iProjekthi yoLwandle oluBomvu yaseSaudi Arabia ngoku ibamba “i-microgrid enkulu ehlabathini” – inkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri ye-400 MW kunye ne-225 MW/1.3 GWh (BESS).

ISaudi Arabia ineebhetri ezingama-33.5 GWh ezisebenzayo, ezisakhiwayo, okanye ezithengiswayo – zonke zinobude bokugcina iiyure ezine ukuya kwezintlanu – kunye ne-34 GWh eyongezelelweyo ecwangcisiweyo phantsi kwesicwangciso sayo samandla seVision 2030. Oko kunokubeka iSaudi Arabia phakathi kweemarike ezintlanu eziphezulu zokugcina amandla kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2026. Iimeko ezifanayo zinokwenzeka kulo lonke i-sunbelt eMbindi Mpuma naseMntla Afrika (MENA), ukusuka eMorocco ukuya kwi-United Arab Emirates, nto leyo ebeka lo mmandla njengomthengisi wamandla acocekileyo kwaye konke oku kuphantsi kwengqikelelo yababikezeli, ngenxa yesantya sophuhliso.

Kwendawo nakwihlabathi jikelele

Nangona kukho iindlela ezithembisayo, imixokelelwane yokubonelela ngeebhetri isalawulwa yiTshayina. Imizamo yokuxhasa imixokelelwane yokubonelela ngeebhetri yengingqi iye yasokola kakhulu ukukhuphisana. Ukuwa kweBritishvolt e-United Kingdom kunye nokufakwa kwesicelo sokukhusela iNorthvolt kwi-European Union njengemizekelo ecacileyo. Oko akuzange kuyimise imizamo yokubonelela ngeebhetri kwihlabathi elikhuselayo ngakumbi.

UMthetho woKuncitshiswa kweNgqesho eMelika ukhuthaze ukwenziwa kwemveliso kunye neerhafu zokungenisa iimveliso zaseTshayina ze-BESS zasekuhlaleni ngenjongo yokudala imisebenzi kunye nokunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwiimpahla ezivela kwamanye amazwe. Nangona kunjalo, loo manyathelo anokubeka emngciphekweni ukwamkelwa kancinci kokugcinwa kwamandla kunye nee-EVs zesikali segridi, ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu zexesha elifutshane.

I-China iziphindezele ngokuxokaiceboukuthintela ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zemveliso ye-cathode kunye ne-anode kunye netekhnoloji yokukhupha kunye nokuphucula i-lithium. Nokuba ukwenziwa kwee-ESS kunye neeseli zebhetri kukwindawo ethile, izinto eziluhlaza ziya kuhlala zigxile eTshayina, nto leyo ehambisa i-bottleneck phezulu.

Ngowama-2025, imakethi yokugcina amandla yehlabathi inokwahlulwa kabini. Iimakethi ezikhuselayo ezifana ne-United States, i-India, kunye ne-MENA ziya kubeka phambili imixokelelwane yokubonelela yasekuhlaleni ukuze kudalwe imisebenzi ngelixa i-Global South iza kugxila ekungenisweni kwempahla ngaphandle kwerhafu, ukuze kuqhutywe ukufikeleleka kunye nokukhula koqoqosho.

Loo ntshukumo iphinda iingxoxo zembali zehlabathi ezifana neMithetho yoMbonakalo yee-1800. Icandelo lokugcina amandla lijongene noxinzelelo olufanayo phakathi kobuchule obuqhutywa lurhwebo kunye nemingcipheko yokungalingani kwezoqoqosho kunye nokufuduka kwemisebenzi.

Indlela eya phambili

Ngoko ke, unyaka ka-2025 uza kuphawula elinye inqanaba lokunyuka kweshishini lokugcina amandla. Njengoko uphuhliso lwetekhnoloji kunye neendleko eziphantsi zikhawulezisa ukwamkelwa kwaye zizisa phambili ukugcinwa kwexesha elide, kunye nokuba kunokwenzeka kwegridi yezinto ezivuselelekayo eziyi-100%, iimarike ziya zilungele ukuchaza ngokutsha iindawo zazo zamandla. Umdyarho wehlabathi wokulawula uthungelwano lokubonelela ugxininisa indlela ukugcinwa kwamandla okungelulo nje iteknoloji exhasayo, kodwa yintsika ephambili yotshintsho lwamandla.

Ukwahlulwa kweenkqubo zokubonelela ngeenkonzo kwihlabathi liphela, okukhuthazwa yimigaqo-nkqubo yokukhusela, kuphakamisa imibuzo ebalulekileyo malunga nokulingana kwamandla kunye nokuvelisa izinto ezintsha. Ngaba ukunyanzelisa ukuveliswa kwemveliso kwindawo ethile kuya kuqhuba ukuqina okanye kuya kucothisa inkqubela phambili kwiimarike ezixhomekeke kwiimpahla ezithengiswayo ezifikelelekayo kwaye kutshintshe nje "indawo yokuminxa" iye phezulu?

Ekuhambeni kwezi nguqu, icandelo lokugcina amandla linamandla okwenza okungaphezulu kunoqoqosho lwamandla - linokubeka umzekelo wendlela amashishini anokulinganisela ngayo ukhuphiswano, intsebenziswano, kunye nokuzinza xa kujongwane nemingeni yehlabathi. Izigqibo ezenziwe namhlanje ziya kuvakala kude kube emva kowama-2025, zibumba kungekuphela nje utshintsho lwamandla, kodwa nendlela ebanzi yezoqoqosho lwentlalo yamashumi eminyaka ezayo.