Ifolokhwe kwindlela yokugcina amandla

Siqhelana neminyaka yokuqhawula irekhodi yokugcina amandla, kwaye i-2024 yayingenjalo. Umenzi u-Tesla usasaze i-31.4 GWh, i-213% ukusuka kwi-2023, kwaye umboneleli wezobuntlola kwimarike i-Bloomberg New Energy Finance iphakamise uqikelelo lwayo kabini, iphele unyaka iqikelele phantse i-2.4 TWh yogcino lwamandla ebhetri ngo-2030. Oko kunokwenzeka ukuba yinto engaphantsi.

Iingxelo ezizizo eziluqilima kunye nokukhula okubonakalayo kunzima ukuqikelela. Abantu abamiselwanga kakuhle ukuba baqhubekisele phambili ii-exponents. Ngo-2019, ugcino lwe-hydro pumped (PHS) lubonelele nge-90% yemveliso yamandla okugcina amandla ehlabathi (elinganiswa kwiigigawatts), kodwa iibhetri zimiselwe ukuba zigqithise oko ngo-2025 kunye nomthamo ohambelana nawo wokugcina amandla, kwiiyure zegigawatt, ngo-2030.

Iibhetri zibuchwephesha, hayi amafutha, kwaye zilandela ukuthotywa kwamaxabiso "izinga lokufunda" ngokufana naleyo ye-semiconductors yezixhobo zesola kunezo ze-asethi zamandla eziqhelekileyo. Iindleko zeeseli zebhetri ziye zehla malunga ne-29% kuyo yonke into ephindwe kabini yobukhulu bemarike kumashumi eminyaka akutshanje, ngokutsho kwabaphandi kwi-RMI yokucinga itanki.

Isizukulwana esitsha "se-3xx Ah" iiseli ze-lithium ferro-phosphate (LFP) - 305Ah, 306Ah, 314Ah, 320Ah - ingene kwimveliso, inikezela ngamandla amakhulu kunye neendleko zeyunithi ephantsi kuneeseli ze-280Ah. Babefuna ukuhlengahlengiswa komgca wemveliso omncinci ngenxa yefom yeprismatic efanayo.

Imfuno yemoto yombane ecothayo kuneyo ibilindelwe (EV) ibangele ukugqithiswa kombane, ukucinezele ngakumbi amaxabiso ezinto ezikrwada ebhetri kwaye ivuse ukhuphiswano lwamaxabiso. Ngo-2024, i-avareji yenkqubo yokugcina amandla (ESS) amaxabiso ehle nge-40% ukuya kwi-$ 165/kWh, elona xabiso lihle kakhulu kwirekhodi. Iindleko zamaTshayina zisezantsi kakhulu, njengoko ithenda ye-16 GWh PowerChina yabona amaxabiso e-ESS engumndilili$66.3/kWh ngoDisemba 2024.

Ukutsiba-tsiba ixesha elide

Iindleko zeeseli eziwayo zixhamla ngokulinganayo kwiinkqubo zokugcina amandla ixesha elide. Ezi projekthi, ezinexabiso eliphezulu leeseli, ziya zisebenza ngokukhawuleza kunokuba bekulindelwe, ngoko ke iisayithi ezinokugcinwa kwexesha elide “ziyaxhuma” iibhetri zeyure enye ukuya kwezimbini zolawulo lwamaza ombane kunye nokuhanjiswa komthwalo eUnited States naseOstreliya.

Iprojekthi yoLwandle oluBomvu yaseSaudi Arabia, umzekelo, ngoku isingathe “eyona mikrogridi inkulu ehlabathini” – i-400 MW yesola kunye ne-225 MW/1.3 GWh inkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri (BESS).

ISaudi Arabia ine-33.5 GWh yeebhetri ezisebenzayo, ezisakhiwayo, okanye zithenda - zonke zinexesha lokugcinwa kweeyure ezine ukuya kwezintlanu - kunye ne-34 GWh eyongezelelekileyo ecwangcisiweyo phantsi kwesicwangciso sayo samandla soMbono wama-2030. Oko kunokubeka iSaudi Arabia phakathi kweemarike ezintlanu eziphezulu zokugcina amandla kwihlabathi ngo-2026. I-dynamics efanayo inokwenzeka ngaphaya kwe-sunbelt yoMbindi Mpuma kunye noMntla Afrika (MENA), ukusuka eMorocco ukuya kwi-United Arab Emirates, ibeka ummandla njengomthengisi wamandla acocekileyo kwaye zonke ziphantsi kweradar yababikezeli, ngenxa yesantya sophuhliso.

Indawo kunye nehlabathi jikelele

Ngaphandle kweendlela ezithembisayo, amakhonkco okubonelela ngebhetri ahlala elawulwa yiTshayina. Iinzame zokonyusa amakhonkco obonelelo ngengingqi asokole kakhulu ukukhuphisana. Ukuwa kweBritishvolt e-United Kingdom kunye nokufakwa kwe-bankruptcy yokukhusela i-Northvolt kwi-European Union isebenza njengemizekelo ecacileyo. Ayikhange imise iinzame zokubonelela ngebhetri phakathi kwelizwe elikhusela ngakumbi.

UMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US wakhuthaza ukuveliswa kwe-BESS yasekuhlaleni kunye neerhafu zokungenisa elizweni kwiimveliso zaseTshayina zijolise ekudaleni imisebenzi kunye nokunciphisa ukuthembela ekuthengeni impahla evela kumazwe angaphandle. Loo manyathelo abeka umngcipheko wokuthotyelwa okucothayo kokugcinwa kwamandla egridi kunye nee-EVs, nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu ezikufutshane.

I-China iphinde yaziphindezela nge-motingisicwangcisoukuvala ukuthunyelwa kwe-cathode kunye nezixhobo zokuvelisa i-anode kunye ne-lithium extraction kunye ne-teknoloji yokucoca. Nokuba i-ESS kunye nokuveliswa kweeseli zebhetri zenziwe zasekhaya, izinto eziluhlaza ziya kuhlala zigxininiswe e-China, zihambisa i-bottleneck phezulu.

Ngo-2025, imarike yokugcina amandla yehlabathi inokwahlulwa kubini. Iimarike ezikhuselayo ezifana ne-United States, i-India, kunye ne-MENA ziza kubeka phambili ikhonkco lonikezelo lwasekhaya ukuze kudalwe imisebenzi ngelixa i-Global South iza kugxila ekungenisweni ngaphandle kwerhafu, ukuqhuba ukufikeleleka kunye nokukhula koqoqosho.

Olo tshintsho lufana nembali yengxoxo yehlabathi jikelele efana neMithetho yoMbona yeminyaka yoo-1800. Icandelo logcino lwamandla lijongene nokungavisisani okufanayo phakathi kwezinto ezintsha eziqhutywa kurhwebo kunye nobungozi bokungalingani kwezoqoqosho kunye nokususwa kwemisebenzi.

Indlela eya phambili

Unyaka we-2025, ngoko ke, uya kuphawula enye indawo yokutshintsha kwishishini lokugcina amandla. Njengoko ukuqhubela phambili kwetekhnoloji kunye neendleko ezihlayo zikhawulezisa ukwamkelwa kunye nokuzisa phambili ukugcinwa kwexesha elide, kunye nokuba nokwenzeka kwegridi ye-100%-enokuhlaziywa, iimarike ziya zilungele ukucacisa ngokutsha umhlaba wazo wamandla. Ugqatso lwehlabathi lolawulo lwekhonkco lonikezelo lugxininisa ukuba ukugcinwa kwamandla akuseyiyo iteknoloji exhasayo, kodwa intsika engundoqo yenguqu yamandla.

Ulwahlulo lwamakhonkco obonelelo lwehlabathi, olukhuthazwa yimigaqo-nkqubo yokhuselo, luphakamisa imibuzo enzima malunga nokulingana kwamandla kunye nokutsha. Ngaba ukutyhala kwimveliso yasekhaya kuya kuqhuba ukomelela okanye kuya kucothisa inkqubela kwiimarike ezixhomekeke ekuthengeni ngaphandle okufikelelekayo kwaye isuke nje itshintshe “indawo yokuphuma” iye phezulu?

Ekuphambeni kwezi ntshukumo, icandelo lokugcina amandla linamandla okwenza okungaphezulu koqoqosho lwamandla - linokumisela umzekelo wendlela amashishini anokulinganisa ngayo ukhuphiswano, intsebenziswano, kunye nokuzinza xa ejongene nemingeni yehlabathi. Izigqibo ezenziwe namhlanje ziya kuhambelana ngaphaya kowama-2025, zibumba kungekuphela nje utshintsho lwamandla, kodwa indlela ebanzi yentlalo noqoqosho kumashumi eminyaka ezayo.