Ifoloko endleleni yokugcina amandla

Sesiyajwayela iminyaka ephula amarekhodi yokugcina amandla, futhi u-2024 wayehlukile. Umkhiqizi uTesla ukhiphe u-31.4 GWh, okwenyuke ngo-213% kusukela ngo-2023, kanti umhlinzeki wezobunhloli bemakethe iBloomberg New Energy Finance uphakamise isibikezelo sakhe kabili, ephetha unyaka ebikezela cishe u-2.4 TWh wesitoreji samandla sebhethri ngo-2030. Lokho kungenzeka ukuthi kuyinto engathandeki.

Izingingi zempendulo ezinhle kanye nokukhula kwe-exponential kunzima kakhulu ukuzibikezela. Abantu abakakulungeli kahle ukucubungula ama-exponents. Ngo-2019, i-pumped hydro storage (PHS) yanikeza u-90% wamandla okugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke (alinganiswa ngama-gigawatts), kodwa amabhethri ahlelelwe ukudlula lokho ngo-2025 kanye namandla awo okugcina amandla ahlobene, ngama-gigawatt-hours, ngo-2030.

Amabhethri awubuchwepheshe, hhayi uphethiloli, futhi alandela “izinga lokufunda” lokwehliswa kwentengo elifana kakhulu nelama-semiconductor emishini yelanga kunelempahla yamandla yendabuko. Izindleko zamaseli ebhethri zehle cishe ngo-29% kukho konke ukuphindwa kabili kosayizi wemakethe emashumini eminyaka amuva nje, ngokusho kwabacwaningi ethangini lokucabanga le-RMI.

Isizukulwane esisha samaseli e-lithium ferro-phosphate (LFP) angu-“3xx Ah” – 305Ah, 306Ah, 314Ah, 320Ah – sesiqalile ukukhiqizwa, sinikeza amandla amaningi kanye nezindleko eziphansi zamayunithi kunamaseli angu-280Ah. Ayedinga ukulungiswa kabusha komugqa wokukhiqiza okuncane ngenxa yesici esifanayo se-prismatic form.

Isidingo sezimoto zikagesi (i-EV) esihamba kancane kunalokho obekulindelwe sibangele ukuphakelwa ngokweqile, okwehlisa kakhulu amanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa kwebhethri futhi kwabangela ukuncintisana okukhulu kwamanani. Ngo-2024, intengo ejwayelekile yesistimu yokugcina amandla (i-ESS) yehle ngo-40% yaya ku-$165/kWh, ukwehla okukhulu kakhulu okuke kwaqoshwa. Izindleko zaseShayina ziphansi kakhulu, njengoba ithenda ye-PowerChina engu-16 GWh ibone amanani e-ESS elinganiselwa.$66.3/kWh ngoDisemba 2024.

Ukugxumagxuma isikhathi eside

Izindleko zamaseli eziwayo zizuzisa kakhulu izinhlelo zokugcina amandla ezihlala isikhathi eside. La maphrojekthi, anezingxenye eziphezulu zezindleko zamaseli, asebenza ngokushesha kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe, ngakho-ke amasayithi anesitoreji esihlala isikhathi eside "agxumagxuma" amabhethri ehora elilodwa kuya kwamabili ukuze kulawulwe imvamisa yegridi kanye nokushintsha komthwalo e-United States nase-Australia.

Isibonelo, iProjekthi Yolwandle Olubomvu yaseSaudi Arabia manje isingethe “i-microgrid enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni” – uhlelo lokugcina amandla ebhethri olusebenzisa amandla elanga oluyi-400 MW kanye nohlelo lokugcina amandla ebhethri oluyi-225 MW/1.3 GWh (BESS).

I-Saudi Arabia inamabhethri angu-33.5 GWh asebenzayo, asakhiwa, noma athengiswayo - konke kugcinwa isikhathi samahora amane kuya kwayisihlanu - kanye ne-34 GWh eyengeziwe ehlelwe ngaphansi kwesu layo lamandla le-Vision 2030. Lokho kungabeka i-Saudi Arabia phakathi kwezimakethe ezinhlanu eziphezulu zokugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke ngo-2026. Izinguquko ezifanayo kungenzeka kulo lonke elaseMpumalanga Ephakathi naseNyakatho Afrika (MENA), kusukela eMorocco kuya e-United Arab Emirates, okubeka lesi sifunda njengomthengisi wamandla ahlanzekile futhi konke lokhu kungaphansi kwe-radar yababikezeli, ngenxa yesivinini sentuthuko.

Indawo kanye nomhlaba wonke

Naphezu kwezindlela ezithembisayo, izintambo zokuhlinzeka ngamabhethri zisabuswa yiShayina. Imizamo yokuqinisa izintambo zokuhlinzeka zesifunda iye yahluleka kakhulu ukuncintisana. Ukuwa kweBritishvolt e-United Kingdom kanye nokufakwa kwesicelo sokuvikelwa kokuqothuka kweNorthvolt e-European Union kuyizibonelo ezicacile. Lokho akuzange kumise imizamo yezintambo zokuhlinzeka ngamabhethri phakathi kwezwe elivikela kakhulu.

UMthetho Wokunciphisa Ukwehla Kwentengo wase-US ukhuthaze ukukhiqizwa kwe-BESS yendawo kanye nentela yokungenisa imikhiqizo yaseShayina ihlose ukudala imisebenzi nokunciphisa ukuthembela ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe. Lezo zinyathelo zibeka engcupheni ukwamukelwa kancane kancane kwesitoreji samandla esikalini segridi kanye nama-EV, nokho, ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme zesikhathi esifushane.

IShayina iziphindiselele ngokuxoshauhleloukuvimbela ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemishini yokukhiqiza i-cathode ne-anode kanye nobuchwepheshe bokukhipha i-lithium kanye nokucubungula. Ngisho noma ukukhiqizwa kwe-ESS namaseli ebhethri kusendaweni, izinto zokusetshenziswa zisazogxila eShayina, okuzothuthukisa imbobo phezulu komfula.

Ngo-2025, imakethe yokugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke ingase ihlukane kabili. Izimakethe ezivikelayo njenge-United States, i-India, kanye ne-MENA zizobeka phambili izintambo zokuhlinzeka zendawo ukuze kudalwe imisebenzi kanti i-Global South izogxila ekungenisweni kwempahla ngaphandle kwentela, ukuze kuqhutshwe ukuthengeka kanye nokukhula komnotho.

Lokho kuguquguquka kuvumelana nezimpikiswano zomlando zomhlaba wonke njengeMithetho Yommbila Yawo-1800. Umkhakha wokugcina amandla ubhekene nokungezwani okufanayo phakathi kokusungula izinto ezintsha okuqhutshwa ukuhweba kanye nezingozi zokungalingani kwezomnotho kanye nokufuduka kwemisebenzi.

Indlela eya phambili

Ngakho-ke, unyaka ka-2025 uzophawula elinye iphuzu lokukhula kwemboni yokugcina amandla. Njengoba intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe kanye nezindleko eziwayo zisheshisa ukwamukelwa futhi ziletha isitoreji sesikhathi eside, kanye nokwenzeka kwegridi yezinto ezivuselelekayo eziyi-100%, izimakethe zikulungele ngokwengeziwe ukuchaza kabusha izindawo zazo zamandla. Umncintiswano womhlaba wonke wokubusa kweketanga lokuhlinzeka ugcizelela ukuthi isitoreji samandla asiseyona nje ubuchwepheshe obusekelayo, kodwa siyinsika eyinhloko yokuguquka kwamandla.

Ukuhlukaniswa kwezintambo zokuphakelwa komhlaba wonke, okugqugquzelwa yizinqubomgomo zokuvikela, kuphakamisa imibuzo ephuthumayo mayelana nokulingana kwamandla kanye nokusungula izinto ezintsha. Ingabe ukusunduza kokukhiqiza kwendawo kuzoqhuba ukuqina noma kuzonciphisa intuthuko ezimakethe ezithembele ekuthengeni okungabizi futhi kumane kushintshe "indawo yokuminyana" iye phezulu?

Ekubhekaneni nalezi zinguquko, umkhakha wokugcina amandla unamandla okwenza okungaphezu kwezomnotho wamandla - ungabeka isibonelo sendlela izimboni ezingalinganisela ngayo ukuncintisana, ukubambisana, kanye nokusimama lapho zibhekene nezinselele zomhlaba wonke. Izinqumo ezenziwe namuhla zizosebenza kahle kakhulu ngale kuka-2025, zingakhi nje kuphela ushintsho lwamandla, kodwa nomzila obanzi wezomnotho weminyaka ezayo.