Imfoloko emgwaqeni yokugcina amandla

Sesijwayele ukujwayela iminyaka eyirekhodi yokugcina amandla, futhi nango-2024 kwaba okufanayo. Umkhiqizi u-Tesla ukhiphe u-31.4 GWh, wenyuka ngo-213% kusukela ngo-2023, futhi umhlinzeki wezobunhloli wemakethe i-Bloomberg New Energy Finance iphakamise isibikezelo sayo kabili, yaphetha unyaka ibikezela cishe u-2.4 TWh wesitoreji samandla ebhethri ngo-2030. Lokho cishe kuwukubukelwa phansi.

Izihibe zempendulo ezinhle kanye nokukhula okuphawulekayo kunzima ukubikezela. Abantu abakamiswa kahle ukucubungula ama-exponents. Ngo-2019, i-pumped hydro storage (PHS) ihlinzeke ngamaphesenti angama-90 okukhipha amandla okugcina amandla emhlabeni jikelele (akalwa ngamagigawathi), kodwa amabhethri azokwedlula lokho ngo-2025 kanye namandla alo okugcina amandla ahlobene, ngamahora e-gigawatt, ngo-2030.

Amabhethri awubuchwepheshe, awawona uphethiloli, futhi alandela “izinga lokufunda” lokwehliswa kwentengo elifana nelama-semiconductors emishini yelanga kunaleyo yempahla yamandla evamile. Izindleko zamaseli ebhethri zehle cishe ngo-29% kukho konke ukuphindwa kabili kosayizi wemakethe emashumini eminyaka amuva nje, ngokusho kwabacwaningi be-RMI think tank.

Isizukulwane esisha samaseli e-lithium ferro-phosphate (LFP) - 305Ah, 306Ah, 314Ah, 320Ah - singene ekukhiqizeni, sinikeza ukuminyana kwamandla aphezulu kanye nezindleko zeyunithi ephansi kunamaseli angu-280Ah. Babedinga ukulungiswa kabusha komugqa wokukhiqiza okuncane ngenxa yento efanayo yefomu le-prismatic.

Ukufunwa kwemoto kagesi ehamba kancane kunaleyo ebilindelwe (i-EV) kubangele ukugcwala ngokweqile, okuqhubekisela phambili ukucindezela amanani entengo yempahla yebhethri futhi kuqubule ukuncintisana kwamanani amakhulu. Ngo-2024, intengo emaphakathi yesistimu yokugcinwa kwamandla (ESS) yehle ngo-40% yaya ku-$165/kWh, ukwehla okukhulu kunakho konke okurekhodiwe. Izindleko zamaShayina ziphansi kakhulu, njengoba ithenda ye-16 GWh PowerChina yabona amanani e-ESS eba isilinganiso$66.3/kWh ngo-December 2024.

I-leapfrogging yesikhathi eside

Izindleko zeseli eziwayo zizuzisa ngokulinganayo amasistimu okugcina amandla esikhathi eside. Lawa maphrojekthi, anezingxenye eziphakeme zezindleko zamaseli, aqala ukusebenza ngokushesha kunalokho obekulindelwe, ngakho amasayithi anesitoreji sesikhathi eside “agxumagxuma” amabhethri ehora elilodwa ukuya kwamabili ukuze alawule ifrikhwensi yegridi kanye nokushintshwa komthwalo e-United States nase-Australia.

Iphrojekthi ye-Red Sea yase-Saudi Arabia, isibonelo, manje isingethe “igridi encane enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni” – i-solar engu-400 MW kanye nesistimu yokugcina amandla ebhethri engu-225 MW/1.3 GWh (BESS).

I-Saudi Arabia inamabhethri angu-33.5 GWh asebenzayo, asakhiwayo, noma anikezwa ithenda - wonke anobude besikhathi sokugcinwa kwamahora amane kuya kwamahlanu - kanye nenye engu-34 GWh ehlelelwe ngaphansi kwesu layo le-Vision 2030 lamandla. Lokho kungase kubeke iSaudi Arabia phakathi kwezimakethe ezinhlanu eziphezulu zokugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke ngo-2026. Amandla afanayo cishe angaphesheya kwe-sunbelt eMpumalanga Ephakathi naseNyakatho Afrika (MENA), ukusuka e-Morocco kuya e-United Arab Emirates, okubeka isifunda njengesithekeli esihlanzekile samandla futhi konke ngaphansi kwe-radar yababikezeli, ngenxa yejubane lentuthuko.

Indawo kanye nomhlaba jikelele

Ngaphandle kwamathrendi athembisayo, amaketanga okunikezwa kwebhethri ahlala elawulwa yi-China. Imizamo yokuqinisa amaketanga ezifunda inzima kakhulu ukuncintisana. Ukuwa kwe-Britishvolt e-United Kingdom kanye nokufakwa kokuvikelwa kokuqothuka kwe-Northvolt e-European Union kusebenza njengezibonelo ezicacile. Lokho akumisanga imizamo yokuhlinzeka ngebhethri phakathi komhlaba ovikela kakhulu.

Umthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla kwamandla emali wase-US wakhuthaza intela ye-BESS yendawo yokukhiqiza kanye nempahla yokungenisa ezweni emikhiqizweni yaseShayina ihlose ukudala amathuba emisebenzi kanye nokunciphisa ukuthembela ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe. Lezo zinyathelo zibeka engcupheni ukwamukelwa kancane kokugcinwa kwamandla esikali segridi nama-EV, nokho, ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme eziseduze.

I-China iziphindiselele ngokukhalazaiceboukuvimbela ukuthunyelwa kwemishini yokukhiqiza i-cathode ne-anode kanye nokukhishwa kwe-lithium kanye nobuchwepheshe bokucwengisiswa. Ngisho noma i-ESS kanye nokukhiqizwa kwamaseli ebhethri kwenziwa okwasendaweni, izinto zokusetshenziswa zisazogxiliswa e-China, zihambise ibhodlela phezulu.

Ngo-2025, imakethe yomhlaba wonke yokugcina amandla ingase ihlukane kabili. Izimakethe ezivikelayo ezifana ne-United States, i-India, kanye ne-MENA zizobeka eqhulwini amaketanga atholakala endaweni ukuze kudaleke amathuba emisebenzi kuyilapho i-Global South izogxila ekuthengisweni ngaphandle kwentela, ukuze kuqhutshwe ukukwazi ukuthengeka nokukhula komnotho.

Lokho kunamandla kunanela izimpikiswano ezingokomlando zokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke njengeMithetho Yommbila yama-1800s. Umkhakha wokugcinwa kwamandla kagesi ubhekene nokungezwani okufanayo phakathi kokuqanjwa kabusha okuqhutshwa uhwebo kanye nezingozi zokungalingani kwezomnotho kanye nokuxoshwa kwabantu ezindaweni zabo.

Indlela eya phambili

Unyaka ka-2025, ngakho-ke, uzophawula elinye iphuzu lokuguquguquka kwemboni yokugcina amandla. Njengoba intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe kanye nezindleko eziwayo zisheshisa ukutholwa futhi ziletha phambili ukugcinwa kwesikhathi eside, kanye nokuba nokwenzeka kwegridi evuselelekayo engu-100%, izimakethe ziya ngokuya zikulungele ukuchaza kabusha izimo zazo zamandla. Umjaho womhlaba wonke wokubusa kwe-supply chain ugcizelela ukuthi ukugcinwa kwamandla akuseyona nje ubuchwepheshe obusekelayo, kodwa insika eyinhloko yokuguqulwa kwamandla.

Ukwehlukaniswa kwamaketanga okunikezela emhlabeni wonke, okugqugquzelwa izinqubomgomo zokuvikela, kuphakamisa imibuzo enzima mayelana nokulingana kwamandla kanye nokuqanjwa okusha. Ingabe ukucindezela kokukhiqizwa kwendawo kuzothuthukisa ukuqina noma kuzobambezela inqubekelaphambili ezimakethe ezincike ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe okuthengekayo futhi kuvele kushintshe “iphuzu lokuminca” liye phezulu?

Ekuzulazuleni kulezi zinguquko, umkhakha wokugcinwa kwamandla unamandla okwenza okungaphezu kwezomnotho wamandla - ungabeka isibonelo sokuthi izimboni zingalinganisa kanjani ukuncintisana, ukubambisana, nokusimama lapho zibhekene nezinselele zomhlaba. Izinqumo ezenziwe namuhla zizozwakala nangale kuka-2025, zingabumbi kuphela uguquko lwamandla, kodwa umgudu obanzi wenhlalo-mnotho wamashumi eminyaka ezayo.