He peka i te huarahi mō te rokiroki pūngao

Kei te taunga haere tātou ki ngā tau rokiroki pūngao e pakaru ana i ngā rekoata, ā, kāore he rerekētanga o te tau 2024. I whakamahia e te kaihanga Tesla te 31.4 GWh, he pikinga 213% mai i te tau 2023, ā, i whakapiki ake te kaiwhakarato mōhiohio mākete a Bloomberg New Energy Finance i tana matapae e rua ngā wā, ā, i mutu te tau mā te matapae tata ki te 2.4 TWh o te rokiroki pūngao pākahiko i te tau 2030. He iti rawa pea tēnā.

He tino uaua ki te matapae i ngā takahuri urupare pai me te tipu tere. Kāore i te tino rite te tangata ki te tukatuka i ngā taupū. I te tau 2019, ko te rokiroki wai papu (PHS) i whakarato i te 90% o te putanga hiko rokiroki pūngao o te ao (i inehia i roto i ngā gigawatts), engari e rite ana ngā pākahiko ki te hipa i tera i te tau 2025 me tōna kaha rokiroki pūngao e pā ana, i roto i ngā gigawat-haora, i te tau 2030.

He hangarau ngā pākahiko, ehara i te wahie, ā, e whai ana i te "reiti ako" whakaheke utu, he rite ki ngā haurua-ira o ngā taputapu pūngao rā, kaua ki ngā rawa pūngao tuku iho. Kua heke te utu o ngā pūtau pākahiko tata ki te 29% mō ia rua o te rahi o te mākete i ngā tekau tau tata nei, e ai ki ngā kairangahau i te whare whakaaro RMI.

Kua tīmata te whakaputa i tētahi whakatupuranga hou o ngā pūtau lithium ferro-phosphate (LFP) "3xx Ah" – 305Ah, 306Ah, 314Ah, 320Ah – e tuku ana i te kiato pūngao teitei ake me ngā utu waeine iti iho i ngā pūtau 280Ah. He iti noa iho te whirihoranga raina whakaputa i hiahiatia nā te mea he rite te āhua o te āhua prismatic.

Nā te puhoi o te tono mō ngā waka hiko (EV) i te mea i whakaarohia, kua nui rawa te tuku, ā, kua heke haere ngā utu rauemi mata o te pākahiko, ā, kua kaha ake te whakataetae utu. I te tau 2024, i heke te utu toharite mō te pūnaha rokiroki pūngao (ESS) mā te 40% ki te $165/kWh, koinei te hekenga tino nui rawa atu kua tuhia. He tino iti ake ngā utu Haina, nā te mea i kitea ngā utu ESS i roto i te tono a te PowerChina 16 GWh e toharite ana.$66.3/kWh i te Hakihea 2024.

Te pekepeke roa

Ko te hekenga o ngā utu pūtau he painga nui ki ngā pūnaha rokiroki pūngao roa ake. Ko ēnei kaupapa, me ngā wāhanga utu pūtau teitei ake, kei te tere haere te whai hua i te mea i whakaarohia, nō reira ko ngā wāhi he roa ake te rokiroki kei te "pekepeke" i ngā pākahiko kotahi ki te rua hāora mō te whakahaere i te auau whatunga me te nekehanga kawenga i te United States me Ahitereiria.

Hei tauira, kei te Kaupapa Moana Whero o Saudi Arabia inaianei te "pūnaha hiko iti rawa atu o te ao" - he pūnaha rokiroki pūngao pūngao rā 400 MW me te pākahiko 225 MW/1.3 GWh (BESS).

E 33.5 GWh te nui o ngā pākahiko a Saudi Arabia kei te whakamahia, kei te hangaia, kei te tukuna rānei – e whā ki te rima hāora te roa o te rokiroki – me te 34 GWh anō kua whakaritea i raro i tana rautaki pūngao Vision 2030. Tērā pea ka whakanohoia a Saudi Arabia ki roto i ngā mākete rokiroki pūngao e rima o runga rawa atu o te ao i te tau 2026. Tērā pea ka kitea anō ngā āhuatanga ōrite puta noa i te rohe o te Middle East me te North Africa (MENA), mai i Morocco ki te United Arab Emirates, e whakanoho ana i te rohe hei kaihokohoko pūngao ma, ā, kei raro katoa i te tirohanga a ngā kaimatapae, nā te tere o te whanaketanga.

Ā-rohe, ā-ao whānui hoki

Ahakoa ngā au whakamīharo, kei te noho tonu te mana o ngā mekameka tuku pākahiko i Haina. Kua uaua te whakataetae ki ngā ngana ki te whakapakari i ngā mekameka tuku ā-rohe. Ko te hinganga o Britishvolt i te United Kingdom me te tuku tiakitanga pēke a Northvolt i te Kotahitanga o Ūropi he tauira mārama. Kāore i mutu ngā mahi a te mekameka tuku pākahiko i roto i te ao e kaha ake ana te tiaki.

Nā te Ture Whakaiti Pikinga o Amerika i whakatenatena te hanga BESS ā-rohe me ngā takoha kawemai mō ngā hua Haina, ā, ko tā rātou whāinga he waihanga mahi, he whakaiti hoki i te whakawhirinaki ki ngā kawemai. Heoi, ko aua mahi ka pōturi ake te whakamahinga o te rokiroki hiko me ngā EV, nā te mea he nui ake ngā utu mō te wā poto.

Kua whakautu a Haina mā te whakahēhe maherekia aukatia te kaweake i ngā taputapu hanga katote me te anote me te hangarau tango me te whakamahine lithium. Ahakoa ka hangaia te ESS me te hanga pūtau pākahiko ki te rohe, ka noho tonu ngā rauemi mata ki Haina, ka neke ake te aukati ki mua.

I te tau 2025, tera pea ka wehea te mākete rokiroki pūngao o te ao kia rua. Ko ngā mākete tiaki whenua pēnei i te Hononga o Amerika, Īnia, me te MENA ka aro nui ki ngā mekameka tuku ā-rohe hei waihanga mahi, ko te Tonga ia o te Ao ka aro ki ngā kawemai kore-taripa, hei akiaki i te utunga me te tipu ōhanga.

He rite tonu te hiranga o tēnei āhuatanga ki ngā tautohetohe o mua mō te ao whānui pērā i ngā Ture Kānga o te rautau 1800. He rite tonu ngā taupatupatu e pā ana ki te rāngai rokiroki pūngao i waenganui i te auahatanga e ahu mai ana i te hokohoko me ngā mōrearea o te kore taurite o te ōhanga me te nekehanga mahi.

Ara whakamua

Nō reira, ko te tau 2025 tētahi atu wā hurihanga mō te umanga rokiroki pūngao. I te mea e tere haere ana te whakaurunga o te hangarau me te hekenga o ngā utu, ā, e whakatairanga ana i te rokiroki roa ake, me te whaihua o te whatunga hiko whakahou 100%, kei te rite haere ngā mākete ki te tautuhi anō i ō rātou whenua hiko. Ko te whakataetae ā-ao mō te mana o te mekameka tuku e whakaatu ana i te korenga o te rokiroki pūngao hei hangarau tautoko noa iho, engari he pou matua o te whakawhiti pūngao.

Ko te wehewehenga o ngā mekameka tuku o te ao, i akiakihia e ngā kaupapa here tiaki, ka ara ake ngā pātai nui mō te ōritetanga pūngao me te auahatanga. Ka akiakihia e te pana mō te hanga ā-rohe te manawanui, ka whakaroa rānei i te ahunga whakamua i roto i ngā mākete e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā kawemai utu iti, ā, ka neke noa iho te "pūwāhi aukati" ki mua?

I roto i te whakatere i ēnei whanaketanga, he nui ake te kaha o te rāngai rokiroki pūngao ki te mahi i tua atu i ngā ōhanga hiko – ka taea e ia te whakatakoto tauira mō te whakataurite i te whakataetae, te mahi tahi, me te pumau i roto i ngā wero o te ao. Ka pārekareka ngā whakataunga i mahia i tēnei rā ki tua atu i te tau 2025, e hanga ana i te whakawhiti pūngao, me te huarahi whānui o te hapori me te pāpori o ngā tekau tau e haere ake nei.