Foloko mumsewu wosungira mphamvu

Tikuyamba kuzolowera zaka zoswa mbiri ya kusunga mphamvu, ndipo 2024 sinali yosiyana. Wopanga Tesla adagwiritsa ntchito 31.4 GWh, kukwera ndi 213% kuchokera mu 2023, ndipo kampani yopereka nzeru pamsika Bloomberg New Energy Finance idakweza zomwe idalosera kawiri, ndikumaliza chaka chomwe chidaneneratu kuti pafupifupi 2.4 TWh ya malo osungira mphamvu za batri pofika chaka cha 2030. Izi mwina sizikudziwika.

Kuchuluka kwa mayankho abwino ndi kukula kwa ma exponential n'kovuta kuneneratu. Anthu sali okonzeka bwino kugwiritsa ntchito ma exponent. Mu 2019, pomputed hydro storage (PHS) idapereka 90% ya mphamvu yosungira mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi (yomwe imayesedwa mu gigawatts), koma mabatire akuyembekezeka kupitirira mu 2025 ndi mphamvu yosungira mphamvu yofanana nayo, mu gigawatt-hours, pofika chaka cha 2030.

Mabatire ndi ukadaulo, osati mafuta, ndipo amatsatira "chiŵerengero cha kuphunzira" chotsika mtengo chomwe chimafanana ndi cha ma semiconductor a zida za dzuwa kuposa cha zinthu zachikhalidwe zamagetsi. Mtengo wa ma batri cell watsika pafupifupi 29% pa kuwirikiza kawiri kwa kukula kwa msika m'zaka zaposachedwa, malinga ndi ofufuza ku RMI think tank.

Mbadwo watsopano wa maselo a “3xx Ah” a lithiamu ferro-phosphate (LFP) – 305Ah, 306Ah, 314Ah, 320Ah – wayamba kupanga, zomwe zikupereka mphamvu zambiri komanso ndalama zochepa kuposa maselo a 280Ah. Amafunikira kukonzanso kochepa kwa mzere wopanga chifukwa cha mawonekedwe ofanana a prismatic.

Kufunika kwa magalimoto amagetsi pang'onopang'ono kuposa momwe amayembekezeredwa kwachititsa kuti pakhale magetsi ambiri, zomwe zapangitsa kuti mitengo ya zinthu zopangira mabatire ikwere kwambiri komanso zapangitsa kuti mitengo ipikisane kwambiri. Mu 2024, mitengo yamagetsi osungira mphamvu (ESS) yatsika ndi 40% kufika pa $165/kWh, kutsika kwakukulu kwambiri komwe kunachitikapo. Mitengo yaku China ndi yotsika kwambiri, pomwe mtengo wamagetsi wa 16 GWh PowerChina unawona mitengo yamagetsi ya ESS ikukwera.$66.3/kWh mu Disembala 2024.

Kudumphadumpha kwa nthawi yayitali

Kutsika kwa mtengo wa maselo kumapindulitsa kwambiri machitidwe osungira mphamvu omwe amakhala nthawi yayitali. Mapulojekitiwa, omwe ali ndi zigawo zokwera mtengo wa maselo, akuyamba kugwira ntchito mwachangu kuposa momwe amayembekezera, kotero malo omwe ali ndi malo osungira nthawi yayitali "akuthamanga kwambiri" mabatire a ola limodzi kapena awiri kuti azitha kulamulira ma gridi pafupipafupi komanso kusuntha katundu ku United States ndi Australia.

Mwachitsanzo, Project ya Red Sea ku Saudi Arabia tsopano ili ndi "gridi yaying'ono kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi" - makina osungira mphamvu ya dzuwa a 400 MW ndi 225 MW/1.3 GWh (BESS).

Saudi Arabia ili ndi mabatire a 33.5 GWh omwe akugwira ntchito, omwe akumangidwa, kapena omwe akuperekedwa - onse okhala ndi nthawi yosungira kwa maola anayi mpaka asanu - ndi 34 GWh ina yomwe ikukonzekera pansi pa njira yake yamagetsi ya Vision 2030. Izi zitha kuyika Saudi Arabia pakati pa misika isanu yapamwamba yosungira mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi pofika chaka cha 2026. Kusintha kofananako mwina kuli ku Middle East ndi North Africa (MENA) sunbelt, kuyambira ku Morocco mpaka ku United Arab Emirates, zomwe zikuyika derali ngati malo ogulitsa mphamvu zoyera ndipo zonsezi zikuyang'aniridwa kwambiri ndi akatswiri owonera zamtsogolo, chifukwa cha liwiro la chitukukochi.

Zam'deralo komanso zapadziko lonse lapansi

Ngakhale kuti zinthu zikuyenda bwino, unyolo wopereka mabatire udakali wolamulidwa ndi China. Kuyesa kulimbikitsa unyolo wopereka mabatire m'madera osiyanasiyana kwakhala kovuta kwambiri kuti kupikisane. Kugwa kwa Britishvolt ku United Kingdom ndi kusungidwa kwa chitetezo cha Northvolt ku European Union ndi zitsanzo zomveka bwino. Zimenezo sizinalepheretse khama lopereka mabatire pakati pa dziko loteteza kwambiri.

Lamulo Lochepetsa Kukwera kwa Mitengo ku US limalimbikitsa kupanga ndi kuitanitsa misonkho ku zinthu zaku China zomwe zimapanga BESS kuti zipange ntchito ndikuchepetsa kudalira zinthu zomwe zimagulidwa kunja. Komabe, njira zimenezi zimapangitsa kuti kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zosungira magetsi ndi ma EV pang'onopang'ono kukhale kovuta chifukwa cha kukwera kwa ndalama zomwe zimagulidwa posachedwa.

China yabwezera poyesadongosolokuletsa kutumiza kunja kwa zida zopangira cathode ndi anode komanso ukadaulo wochotsa ndi kukonza lithiamu. Ngakhale kupanga ESS ndi maselo a batri kukuchitika m'deralo, zinthu zopangira zidzakhazikikabe ku China, zomwe zikusuntha vuto la botolo kupita mmwamba.

Mu 2025, msika wapadziko lonse wosungira mphamvu ukhoza kugawikana pawiri. Misika yoteteza monga United States, India, ndi MENA idzaika patsogolo njira zoperekera zinthu m'deralo kuti pakhale ntchito pomwe Global South idzayang'ana kwambiri zinthu zogulitsa kunja zopanda msonkho, kuti ziyendetse bwino komanso kukula kwachuma.

Kusintha kumeneku kumabwereza mkangano wakale wa padziko lonse lapansi monga Malamulo a Chimanga a m'ma 1800. Gawo losungira mphamvu likukumana ndi mikangano yofanana pakati pa zatsopano zomwe zimayendetsedwa ndi malonda ndi zoopsa za kusalingana kwachuma ndi kusamuka kwa ntchito.

Njira yopita patsogolo

Chaka cha 2025, motero, chidzakhala chizindikiro china cha kusintha kwa makampani osungira mphamvu. Pamene kupita patsogolo kwa ukadaulo ndi kutsika kwa ndalama zikufulumizitsa kukhazikitsidwa ndikubweretsa kusungirako kwa nthawi yayitali, komanso kuthekera kwa gridi yobwezeretsanso 100%, misika ikukonzeka kwambiri kusintha mawonekedwe awo amagetsi. Mpikisano wapadziko lonse lapansi wofuna kulamulira unyolo wopereka zinthu ukugogomezera momwe kusungira mphamvu sikulinso ukadaulo wothandizira, koma mzati waukulu wa kusintha kwa mphamvu.

Kugawikana kwa maunyolo ogulitsa padziko lonse lapansi, komwe kumalimbikitsidwa ndi mfundo zoteteza, kumabweretsa mafunso okhudza kufanana kwa mphamvu ndi luso. Kodi kukakamiza kupanga zinthu m'deralo kudzayambitsa kulimba mtima kapena kudzachepetsa kupita patsogolo kwa misika yomwe imadalira zinthu zotsika mtengo zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja ndikungosintha "malo otsekeka" kupita patsogolo?

Poyendetsa zinthu motere, gawo losungira mphamvu lili ndi kuthekera kochita zambiri kuposa chuma chamagetsi - likhoza kupereka chitsanzo cha momwe mafakitale angagwirizanitsire mpikisano, mgwirizano, ndi kukhazikika poyang'anizana ndi mavuto apadziko lonse lapansi. Zisankho zomwe zapangidwa lero zidzachitika pambuyo pa chaka cha 2025, zomwe zidzasintha osati kusintha kwa mphamvu kokha, komanso njira yayikulu yazachuma yazaka zikubwerazi.